söndag 4 november 2018

Tufft för Demokraterna i Senaten och för GOP i Representanthuset

Demokraternas chans att vinna Senaten och Republikanernas chans att behålla sin majoritetsposition i Representanthuset är mycket små, menar Nate Silver. För att det skall ske krävs en "A Systematic Polling Error". De båda partiernas problem verkar dock vara att de försvarar "too much territory" (Demokraterna i Senaten och Republikanerna i Representanthuset):

"They [Demokraterna, min kommentar] need for the polls to be off everywhere, or at least in certain key clusters of states, to win the Senate. A polling error in just one or two races (say, Beto O’Rourke wins in Texas) probably wouldn’t be enough: Democrats are defending too much territory and have too many problems elsewhere on the map just to get lucky".

"But why is it so hard for Republicans to win the House without a systematic polling miss? The short answer is because they’re defending too much territory: The House playing field is exceptionally broad this year, because of Republican retirements, an influx of Democratic cash and other factors. The decisive race won’t necessarily be in a toss-up district; it could very easily be in a “likely Republican” district where a GOP incumbent is caught sleeping at the wheel (perhaps a district where there hasn’t been much polling)".

Läs hela artikeln här: Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House

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