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McCain Running Strongly In Some Key Democratic States

By CQ Staff1 hour, 47 minutes ago

Arizona Sen. John McCain is running strongly in three states that have been solidly Democratic in recent presidential elections; a particular surprise is New Jersey where, a month ago, Illinois Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had a double-digit lead, according to a new round of state-by-state general election match-ups.

The series of polls by Rasmussen Reports, which included Michigan and Washington State, also underscored what most other national and state polling has found - high negatives for Clinton as far as favorability ratings. McCain often scores the highest favorability ratings, while Obama comes out on the positive side, but by lesser margins.

Rasmussen says McCain and the Democrats are in a statistical tie in New Jersey, with McCain leading Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent and Obama by 46 percent to 45 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. A month ago, Obama ran closely with McCain but Clinton, showing strength in her neighboring state, had led McCain 50 percent to 39 percent.

McCain is also running a close race with the Democrats in Michigan, according to the Rasmussen survey conducted March 25. He leads Obama 43 percent to 42 percent, and Clinton by 45 percent to 42 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error.

McCain is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters, Obama by 50 percent and Clinton by 47 percent. This is a state the Democrats have carried in the last four elections. It is also one of the two states (the other being Florida) where the controversy continues over the Democratic Party's decision to strip both of their delegates for breaking party rules by moving up the dates of their primaries. Forty-five percent of Michigan Democrats say there should be some kind of a re-vote, while 39 percent disagree. Mirroring a Gallup poll earlier today, a plurality of Democrats believe Obama would be a stronger opponent for McCain than Clinton (by a 48 percent to 41 percent margin) and 58 percent expect Obama to win the nomination.

Rasmussen noted that the Republicans have not carried New Jersey for 20 years, but added "in recent years, several GOP candidates have done well in spring polls only to see their hopes fade in the fall." Clinton's favorability rating - at 50 percent - is a little better here than in other state-by-state surveys, but it still represents a 6 point decline since the last poll. McCain's favorable rating is 61 percent and Obama's is 58 percent. The economy is cited as the top issue by 47 percent with only 12 percent rating it excellent or good. Twenty-two percent cite Iraq as the top issue, but among those, 39 percent believe the situation will worsen in the next six months compared to 32 percent who believe it will improve.

And in Washington State, Rasmussen finds McCain is competitive with both Democrats, according to a poll conducted March 27. Obama leads him 48 percent to 43 percent while McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In its Feb. 28 polling, McCain and Obama were statistically tied while Clinton was ahead 48 percent to 40 percent. On the scale of favorability ratings, Obama registers at 57 percent, McCain at 56 percent and Clinton, whose negatives repeat state after state, is at 43 percent. The last time a Republican won this state was in the Ronald Reagan landslide of 1984.

The economy is cited as the top issue by most voters (37 percent) with Iraq next (24 percent). Only 14 percent of Democrats say the economy is good or excellent. Thirty-nine percent believe the U.S. is winning the war on terror.

To see a full round-up of recent state-by-state general election match-ups, see the version of this story on CQ Politics Poll Tracker.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20080331/pl_cq_politics/politics2694330 2008-03-31