Obamas styrka, inte så stark som den borde vara

En väldigt intressant artikel hos Real Clear Politics, som erkänner att Obama har en unik kampanj, att han är en unik kandidat och att hans rundresa i världen var lyckad. Men likväl har Obama inte nått den magiska gränsen på ett 50%-igt stöd på hemma plan. Den senaste opinionsmätningen från två veckor sedan visar att stödet för Obama ligger på 46% medan stödet för McCain ligger på 41%. Det visar att Obama fortfarande inte har lyckats vinna över stora delar av vita väljare - som te x den vita arbetarklassen. Detta trots att Hillary Clinton nu kampanjar för honom. Detta menar författaren borde väcka uppmärksamhet. I många val har Demokraterna nämligen lett stort i opinonsmätningarna just över sommaren - medan Republikanerna nästan alltid gjort come-back framåt hösten. Författaren Robert Novak skriver:

It is particularly troubling to Democrats who recall past Democratic candidates taking a huge lead over the summer before being overtaken or nearly overtaken by a surging Republican opponent. In 1976, Jimmy Carter took a 33-point summer lead over President Gerald Ford and won in a photo finish. In 1988, Michael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush by 17 points after being nominated in Atlanta before he lost the election. Al Gore and John Kerry were ahead of George W. Bush in the summer.

Novak går sedan vidare och förklarar att ett av Obamas misstag på sin resa var att i princip gå emot den mycket populäre befälhavaren David Petraeus:

"...sitting by the popular Gen. David Petraeus and disagreeing with his military judgment may not have been the way to win over undecided white working men.

The toughest interrogation of Obama was CBS anchor Katie Couric's in Jordan last Tuesday. She asked four different times whether the troop surge he had opposed was instrumental in reducing violence in Iraq. Each time, Obama answered straight from talking points by citing "the great effort of our young men and women in uniform." That sounded like the old politics. He would have sounded more like a new politician if he had simply said, "Yes, the strategy did work." That would have infuriated anti-war activists, but not enough for them to drop Obama."

Novak avslutar sedan artikeln:

Several Democrats I have talked to noted that recent Democratic presidents got elected with a minority of the vote and also that McCain is further below the 50 percent standard than Obama. But McCain, running a flawed campaign in a big Democratic year, is dangerously close. He still could back in unless Obama closes the deal.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/can_mccain_back_in_again.html