tisdag 15 december 2009

Al Gore erkänner egna klimatöverdrifter i Köpenhamn

Al Gore har åkt till Köpenhamn för att promota ett globalt klimatavtal - där tycks han dock ha trasslat in sig själv i resonemang som spelar helt i händerna "Climategate"-opinionen som menar att forskare och politiker överdriver den globala uppvärmningen i politiska syften. Times Online skriver:

"There are many kinds of truth. Al Gore was poleaxed by an inconvenient one yesterday.

The former US Vice-President, who became an unlikely figurehead for the green movement after narrating the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, became entangled in a new climate change “spin” row.

Mr Gore, speaking at the Copenhagen climate change summit, stated the latest research showed that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in five years.

In his speech, Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”"

Tidningen rapporterar vidare hur den forskare Al Gore hänvisar till tar avstånd från ett sådant påstående:

However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.

The embarrassing error cast another shadow over the conference after the controversy over the hacked e-mails from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit, which appeared to suggest that scientists had manipulated data to strengthen their argument that human activities were causing global warming.

Lite längre fram fortsätter artikeln:

Perhaps Mr Gore had felt the need to gild the lily to buttress resolve. But his speech was roundly criticised by members of the climate science community. “This is an exaggeration that opens the science up to criticism from sceptics,” Professor Jim Overland, a leading oceanographer at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

“You really don’t need to exaggerate the changes in the Arctic.”

Others said that, even if quoted correctly, Dr Maslowski’s six-year projection for near-ice-free conditions is at the extreme end of the scale. Most climate scientists agree that a 20 to 30-year timescale is more likely for the near-disappearance of sea ice.

“Maslowski’s work is very well respected, but he’s a bit out on a limb,” said Professor Peter Wadhams, a specialist in ocean physics at the University of Cambridge.

Dr Maslowki, who works at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California, said that his latest results give a six-year projection for the melting of 80 per cent of the ice, but he said he expects some ice to remain beyond 2020.

He added: “I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this,” he said. “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.”

När Al Gore debatterade med George W. Bush i presidentvalet år 2000 så överdrev Gore en del siffror under den första presidentdebatten, vilket fick Bushkampanjen att beskriva Gore som en serieöverdrivare ("serial exaggerator"). I den andra debatten erkände Gore detta och sa då:

"I got some of the details wrong last week in some of the examples that I used, Jim, and I'm sorry about that. And I'm going to try to do better. One of the reasons I regret it is that getting a detail wrong interfered several times with the point that I was trying to make... I can't promise that I will never get another detail wrong. I can promise you that I will try not to, and hard. But I will promise you this with all the confidence in my heart and in the world, that I will do my best if I'm elected president, I'll work my heart out to get the big things right for the American people."

Problemet blir bara när alltför många detaljer felar. Ett felaktigt penseldrag kanske inte ändrar tavlans motiv, men med alltför många felaktiga penseldrag så blir bilden på tavlan en helt annan. Det var år 2000 Gore lovade att försöka sluta överdriva, det har han uppenbarligen ännu inte lyckats lära sig att inte göra. Det betyder inte att global uppvärmning inte är verklig - däremot betyder det att Al Gore fortfarande är vad som år 2000 så utmärkt beskrevs som just en "serieöverdrivare".

Källa: TimesOnline

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