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First, let me begin by saying that I'm studying finance and economics, and so naturally I have a great interest in the stock market and in the economy as a whole.
In this post, I am going to give you three reasons why Sarah Palin, if she were to be elected president, would lead to a shaky, perhaps even crashing, stock market and why the sole presence of her in the White House would be a burden for the economy.
1) She quit.
Many African countries have a hard time finding investors, because no-one can feel safe about anything: Will the President be assassinated tomorrow? Will the Presidential palace be trampled by elephants? Will the government nationalize the farming industry (possibly as a way to raise money for a new palace to replace the trampled one)? This of course goes for other countries with unpredictable governments.
While Sarah Palin is not that extreme (and while the White House is very well protected against hostile elephants), she does open up for unprecedented speculation: "Someone filed an ethics lawsuit against her; will she resign now?", "Democrats are filibustering her legislation; will she chicken out now?", "What effects will it have on government spending/regulation/anything if the VP takes over?".
This opens up for huge volatility in the stock market: America will have a president which cannot be trusted with anything; not even with performing the duties she swore on her bible to perform. If you can't even trust them with that, what can they be trusted with?
And here's the problem: When we know someone cannot be trusted with their word, we start to look for other signs. Just take the speculation of who will run in 2012 as an example. Everyone knows that no-one at this point can be trusted to be honest with their intentions (everyone denies they're running until they announce their candidacies). So, we start to look for other signs: Which potential candidates are visiting Iowa? How many are hiring staff, forming PACs etc? Sometimes, it gets kind of silly, like when Huckabee supporters (which I belong to) start to celebrate every time Huckabee wears a purple tie, because for us, that's a sure sign he is running.
Even if Palin would constantly deny that she was planning on resigning from the presidency, there would still be speculation: "She's wearing her hair tied up; does this mean she's resigning?", "The VP has been in the spotlight a lot lately; is he preparing to take over?"
Normally, no-one would even think about that. The President resigning, and without any great scandal too? That's unthinkable in America.
2) Democrats will keep her busy
Let's look at Palin's excuse for resigning: She couldn't get anything done. There were frivolous ethics complaints that kept her staff busy, and she made a great sacrifice in resigning so that her staff would have more leisure time (or whatever). That's very kindhearted of course... but what if the democrats in congress do the same thing to her?
See, any Republican president will have to handle a number of frivolous complaints and lawsuits. But with George W Bush, the democrats knew that all their hard work to ridicule him wouldn't have any real effect; it was a symbolic way of protesting only. Now, imagine if we get a President Palin, who has shown before that she lets herself be bullied out of office: How many impeachment attempts, how many ethics complaints, how many lawsuits wouldn't the liberals make then?
Sarah Palin did get some work done in Alaska, but she won't get anything done in the White House. The Democrats will be more obstructionist than ever, because the idea of a Republican president resigning will be like a pipe dream closer than ever to come true (first time since Nixon). They will do anything to make it happen, now when they know it can happen.
3) She prides herself in being unpredictable
Anyone who brags - or have bragged - about being a "maverick" is unsuitable for the office of President. The stock market hates mavericks - stability and thoughtful planning is what creates economic and financial growth. Palin is doing things that are unconventional, just for the sake of it. That's not the way to go to make people feel safe and trust their leaders. She's the kind of leader who could go to Vegas and gamble with the defense budget, and then claim everyone who's criticizing it is "lamestream".
Palin cares only about what her base thinks - she has shown that time and time again by dismissing her critics instead of answering them. And in order to keep her base happy, she will have to be unconventional. Okay, so she might not go to Vegas, but there is no guarantee that she won't - and so speculation will ensue about it, and about a lot of other things we were pretty sure no president would ever be stupid enough to do.
What about the rest?
The rest of the candidates might not be perfect, but everyone is above Palin in the sense that they have never betrayed their states. Mitt Romney didn't run for re-election, but at least he served out the term he was elected for. Newt Gingrich is similar to Palin in that he is unpredictable and often acts immature, but even he never let his state down in the way Palin did. He is still unsuitable for President (possibly even more unsuitable than Palin) because of his baggage, but of the possible 2012 contenders, only Palin chickened out of her duties.
I say the less of a flip-flopper a President is; the better. As long as companies and consumers know what is going to happen, they can prepare for it, and the ability to plan ahead is vital for economic growth. Companies will never make long-term investments in the US (such as, moving a plant back from China to Michigan) if they don't have any clue what the future of the country is going to be like. And the future of the United states, for better or for worst, depends a lot on the politics and the leadership it has. A stable and proven leader will ensure growth.
Sarah Palin will not.
John Gustavsson
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